We Calculated the Real First-Year Return of 256 Credit Cards on Average U.S. Spending

Most "best credit card" lists are really ranked by which card pays the site the biggest commission. We did the opposite here. We took every one of the 256 major U.S. credit cards in our database, ran them all through the same realistic spending profile, and ranked them by the dollars they would actually put back in your pocket, counting every point as a flat 1 cent.

We split the results into two tables. The main ranking covers the 177 everyday cards, the cash-back and flexible-points cards you can use anywhere. The 79 co-branded airline and hotel cards are ranked in a separate table, because their welcome bonuses are paid in miles or hotel points that we value at a flat 1 cent. That makes their one-time first-year figure look huge, but it is locked to one airline or hotel brand and is not comparable to a flexible card you can redeem against any purchase.

$555
average first-year return across 177 everyday cards
$1,750
best first-year card (Crypto.com Obsidian)
19
cards that lose money on rewards alone after the fee
$1,750
best $0-annual-fee card first year
Methodology. We modeled an average U.S. household spending $29,160 per year on a card ($6,000 groceries, $3,000 dining, $2,160 gas, $1,800 travel, $600 streaming, $720 transit, $480 pharmacy, and $14,400 everything else). Every point and mile is valued at a flat 1 cent, the same honest standard for every card, with no inflated airline or hotel valuations. First-year value = category earnings + the welcome bonus you would realistically hit at this spend, minus the annual fee. Ongoing value strips out the one-time bonus to show recurring earning power.

The welcome bonus does most of the work in year one

The single biggest driver of first-year value is the sign-up bonus, not the everyday earn rate. That is why a card can top the list one year and fall back to the middle the next. Compare the two right-hand columns in the table below: the gap between a card's first-year and ongoing value is almost entirely its welcome bonus.

19 premium cards lose money on rewards alone

This is the part most "best card" roundups skip over. Counting only rewards minus the annual fee, 19 cards finish the year in the red, led by The Centurion® Card from American Express, American Express® Platinum, American Express® Platinum for Morgan Stanley, American Express® Platinum for Schwab. That does not make them bad cards. It just means they only pay off if you use their credits and perks, the lounge access, the travel and dining credits, the free hotel nights. If those are not things you will actually use, you are paying a fee to earn less than a free card would hand you.

No-annual-fee cards hold up better than you would think

The best $0-fee card returns $1,750 in year one, and there is no fee to dig out of first, so all of it is yours. Several no-fee cards even out-earn premium cards once the welcome bonus is spent. If you are not going to use a premium card's perks, a no-fee card is the smarter one to keep for the long haul.

Full results: all 177 everyday cards, ranked by first-year value

Run these numbers against your own spending in the Cardocrat calculator. Your personal ranking shifts based on where you actually spend.

#CardAnnual feeAnnual earnWelcome bonusFirst-yearOngoing
1Crypto.com Obsidian$0$1,750$0$1,750$1,750
2Crypto.com Icy White / Frosted Rose Gold$0$1,458$0$1,458$1,458
3Chase Sapphire Preferred®$95$545$1,000$1,450$450
4Ink Business Unlimited®$0$437$1,000$1,437$437
5Ink Business Cash®$0$343$1,000$1,343$343
6American Express® Gold$325$598$1,000$1,273$273
7Capital One Venture$95$583$750$1,238$488
8American Express® Platinum$895$364$1,750$1,219-$531
9Capital One Spark Cash Select$0$437$750$1,187$437
10U.S. Bank Triple Cash Rewards Business Card$0$395$750$1,145$395
11Bilt Obsidian$95$490$700$1,095$395
12U.S. Bank Business Altitude® Connect Visa Signature®$95$440$750$1,095$345
13Wells Fargo Signify Business Cash℠$0$583$500$1,083$583
14Citi Strata Premier℠$95$551$600$1,056$456
15Crypto.com Royal Indigo / Jade Green$300$1,312$0$1,012$1,012
16TD Business Solutions Credit Card$0$583$400$983$583
17Crypto.com Ruby Steel$50$1,021$0$971$971
18Bank of America® Premium Rewards® Credit Card$95$461$600$966$366
19One Key+™ Card$99$713$350$964$614
20U.S. Bank Business Leverage® Visa Signature®$95$434$600$939$339
21Capital One Venture X$395$583$750$938$188
22Business Advantage Travel Rewards World Mastercard®$0$437$500$937$437
23Capital One VentureOne Business$0$437$500$937$437
24Wells Fargo Autograph Journey℠$95$424$600$929$329
25Navy Federal Flagship Rewards Visa Signature®$49$601$350$902$552
26Bilt Palladium$495$583$800$888$88
27PenFed Pathfinder® Rewards Visa Signature® Card$95$482$500$887$387
28American Express® Blue Cash Preferred$95$679$300$884$584
29One Key™ Card$0$632$250$882$632
30HSBC Premier World Mastercard®$95$473$500$878$378
31Disney® Inspire Visa® Card$149$425$600$876$276
32Discover it® Miles$0$437$437$875$437
33Business Advantage Customized Cash Rewards Mastercard®$0$365$500$865$365
34Navy Federal cashRewards Credit Card$0$583$250$833$583
35American Express Blue Business Cash Card$0$583$250$833$583
36PNC Cash Unlimited® Visa Signature® Credit Card$0$583$250$833$583
37Verizon Visa® Card$0$626$200$826$626
38Robinhood Gold Card$50$875$0$825$825
39USAA Eagle Navigator® Visa Signature®$95$601$300$806$506
40Citi Custom Cash℠$0$791$0$791$791
41Prime Visa$0$590$200$790$590
42Citi Double Cash®$0$583$200$783$583
43TD Double Up Credit Card$0$583$200$783$583
44Wells Fargo Active Cash®$0$583$200$783$583
45Evergreen® Credit Card$0$583$200$783$583
46SDFCU Premium Cash Back+ Visa Signature® Card$0$583$200$783$583
47Shell Performance Elite World Mastercard®$0$716$50$766$716
48USAA Eagle Adapt™ Credit Card$0$563$200$763$563
49Disney® Premier Visa® Card$49$403$400$754$354
50U.S. Bank Cash+®$0$492$250$742$492
51Bank of America Business Advantage Unlimited Cash Rewards$0$437$300$737$437
52Capital One Savor$0$484$250$734$484
53American Express® Blue Business Plus$0$583$150$733$583
54Navy Federal More Rewards American Express® Card$0$529$200$729$529
55PenFed Platinum Rewards Visa Signature® Card$0$570$150$720$570
56Citi Strata℠$0$511$200$711$511
57U.S. Bank Altitude® Connect Visa Signature®$0$506$200$706$506
58AAA Travel Advantage Visa Signature®$0$594$100$694$594
59Bank of America® Customized Cash Rewards$0$491$200$691$491
60Chase Freedom Unlimited®$0$490$200$690$490
61USAA Preferred Cash Rewards Visa Signature®$0$437$250$687$437
62Bank of America® Travel Rewards Credit Card$0$437$250$687$437
63AAA Daily Advantage Visa Signature®$0$587$100$687$587
64Discover it® Secured Credit Card$0$343$343$686$343
65Discover it® Chrome$0$343$343$686$343
66PenFed Power Cash Rewards Visa Signature® Card$0$583$100$683$583
67PNC Cash Rewards® Visa® Credit Card$0$476$200$676$476
68U.S. Bank Altitude® Go Visa Signature®$0$469$200$669$469
69Bank of America® Premium Rewards® Elite Credit Card$550$461$750$661-$89
70Wells Fargo Autograph℠$0$457$200$657$457
71American Express® Blue Cash Everyday$0$455$200$655$455
72American Express® Green$150$402$400$652$252
73Capital One Quicksilver$0$437$200$637$437
74Bank of America® Unlimited Cash Rewards Credit Card$0$437$200$637$437
75Regions Cash Rewards Visa® Signature® Credit Card$0$437$200$637$437
76Upgrade Cash Rewards Visa®$0$437$200$637$437
77Regions Prestige Visa® Signature® Credit Card$0$433$200$633$433
78Priceline VIP Rewards™ Visa® Card$0$415$200$615$415
79TD Cash Credit Card$0$412$200$612$412
80Chase Sapphire Reserve®$795$406$1,000$611-$389
81AT&T Points Plus® Card from Citi$0$395$200$595$395
82Citi Strata Elite℠$595$439$750$594-$156
83SoFi Credit Card (Unlimited 2%)$0$583$0$583$583
84Discover it® Cash Back$0$292$292$583$292
85Discover it® Student Cash Back$0$292$292$583$292
86U.S. Bank Smartly™ Visa Signature®$0$583$0$583$583
87Apple Card$0$583$0$583$583
88Fidelity® Rewards Visa Signature® Card$0$583$0$583$583
89Fifth Third Preferred Cash/Back Card$0$583$0$583$583
90Key Cashback Credit Card$0$583$0$583$583
91T-Mobile Visa® Signature Card$0$583$0$583$583
92Citizens Summit® World Mastercard®$0$572$0$572$572
93Capital One VentureOne Rewards$0$364$200$564$364
94Truist Enjoy Beyond Visa® Credit Card$95$358$300$563$263
95Chase Freedom Flex℠$0$361$200$561$361
96Affinity Cash Rewards Visa® Signature Card$0$409$150$559$409
97TD First Class℠ Visa Signature® Credit Card$89$388$250$549$299
98Capital One Quicksilver Student$0$437$100$537$437
99REI Co-op Mastercard$0$437$100$537$437
100Blue Cash® Card from American Express$0$535$0$535$535
101Coinbase One Card$50$583$0$533$533
102Amazon Visa$0$470$50$520$470
103Truist Enjoy Travel Visa® Credit Card$0$310$200$510$310
104HSBC Elite World Elite Mastercard®$495$394$600$499-$101
105Samsung Galaxy Card$0$298$200$498$298
106Key2More Rewards Credit Card$0$292$200$492$292
107Upgrade Triple Cash Rewards Visa®$0$292$200$492$292
108Capital One Venture Business$95$583$0$488$488
109Fifth Third 1.67% Cash/Back Card$0$487$0$487$487
110Gemini Credit Card$0$476$0$476$476
111BJ's One+™ Mastercard®$110$583$0$473$473
112bp rewards Visa®$0$472$0$472$472
113OnePay CashRewards Mastercard$0$437$35$472$437
114Sam's Club® Mastercard®$0$438$30$468$438
115Chase Freedom Rise®$0$437$25$462$437
116AARP® Travel Rewards Mastercard®$0$358$100$458$358
117Ollo Everyday Rewards Mastercard®$0$455$0$455$455
118Wells Fargo Attune℠$0$450$0$450$450
119Capital One SavorOne$39$484$0$445$445
120Venmo Visa® Signature Credit Card$0$442$0$442$442
121Disney® Visa® Card$0$292$150$442$292
122USAA Cashback Rewards Plus American Express® Card$0$438$0$438$438
123Capital One Quicksilver Secured Cash Rewards$0$437$0$437$437
124PayPal Cashback Mastercard$0$437$0$437$437
125Crypto.com Midnight Blue$0$437$0$437$437
126Huntington Cashback Credit Card$0$437$0$437$437
127AARP® Essential Rewards Mastercard®$0$335$100$435$335
128Capital One Spark Cash Plus$150$583$0$433$433
129PNC points® Visa® Credit Card$0$233$200$433$233
130Capital One Savor (Legacy $95)$95$520$0$425$425
131My Best Buy Visa® Card$0$425$0$425$425
132Chime Credit Builder Visa®$0$421$0$421$421
133SoFi Everyday Cash Rewards Credit Card$0$412$0$412$412
134DoorDash Rewards Mastercard®$0$412$0$412$412
135Bilt Blue$0$310$100$410$310
136Instacart Mastercard®$0$349$50$399$349
137Capital One QuicksilverOne$39$437$0$398$398
138Truist Enjoy Cash Visa® Credit Card$0$395$0$395$395
139Ink Business Premier$195$583$0$388$388
140U.S. Bank Business Altitude® Power Visa Signature®$195$583$0$388$388
141Costco Anywhere Visa®$65$452$0$387$387
142Costco Anywhere Visa® Business Card$65$452$0$387$387
143Navy Federal GO REWARDS® Credit Card$0$373$0$373$373
144American Express EveryDay®$0$352$0$352$352
145Bass Pro Shops CLUB / Cabela's CLUB Mastercard$0$292$60$352$292
146American Express Business Green Rewards Card$95$292$150$347$197
147Target Circle™ Card$0$292$50$342$292
148American Express EveryDay® Preferred$95$433$0$338$338
149Citi Dividend® Card$0$292$0$292$292
150ExxonMobil™ Smart Card+™$0$292$0$292$292
151Techron Advantage® Visa® Card$0$292$0$292$292
152Huntington Voice Rewards Credit Card$0$292$0$292$292
153Amex Graphite Business Cash Unlimited Card$295$583$0$288$288
154Citizens Summit Reserve® World Elite Mastercard®$295$581$0$286$286
155American Express® Platinum for Morgan Stanley$895$364$800$269-$531
156American Express® Platinum for Schwab$895$364$800$269-$531
157Fortiva® Mastercard®$49$292$0$243$243
158Ink Business Preferred®$95$328$0$233$233
159Alibaba.com Business Edge Credit Card$199$322$100$223$123
160Surge® Platinum Mastercard®$96$292$0$196$196
161Credit One Bank® Platinum Visa®$99$292$0$193$193
162Capital One Venture X Business$395$583$0$188$188
163American Express® Business Gold$375$500$0$125$125
164Capital One Platinum Secured$0$0$0$0$0
165Citi® Secured Mastercard®$0$0$0$0$0
166Citi Prestige® Card$495$484$0-$11-$11
167First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard®$45$0$0-$45-$45
168Total Visa® Card$48$0$0-$48-$48
169U.S. Bank Altitude® Reserve Visa Infinite®$400$328$0-$72-$72
170Milestone® Mastercard®$99$0$0-$99-$99
171Indigo® Mastercard®$99$0$0-$99-$99
172Destiny® Mastercard®$99$0$0-$99-$99
173Robinhood Platinum Card$695$412$0-$283-$283
174Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business℠$795$436$0-$359-$359
175J.P. Morgan Reserve Card$795$388$0-$407-$407
176American Express® Business Platinum$895$364$0-$531-$531
177The Centurion® Card from American Express$5,000$292$0-$4,708-$4,708

Co-branded airline and hotel cards, ranked separately

These 79 cards are tied to a single airline or hotel program. Their welcome bonuses are large hauls of miles or points, which we value at a flat 1 cent each, so their first-year figures average $976, well above the everyday cards. Treat that with caution: the bonus is worth that much only if you can use it with that one brand, and the ongoing earn rate is what matters once the bonus is gone. We keep them in their own table so a one-time point bonus does not crowd a flexible cash-back card off the main list.

#CardAnnual feeAnnual earnWelcome bonusFirst-yearOngoing
1Marriott Bonvoy Boundless®$95$671$1,750$2,326$576
2Hilton Honors Surpass®$150$1,174$1,300$2,324$1,024
3IHG One Rewards Premier$99$1,014$1,400$2,315$915
4IHG One Rewards Premier Business$99$1,014$1,400$2,315$915
5Hilton Honors Aspire$550$1,067$1,750$2,267$517
6Hilton Honors American Express Business Card$195$1,014$1,300$2,119$819
7Hilton Honors$0$1,062$1,000$2,062$1,062
8Marriott Bonvoy Business® American Express® Card$125$686$1,500$2,061$561
9Marriott Bonvoy Bevy™ American Express® Card$250$763$1,350$1,863$513
10Wyndham Rewards Earner® Plus Card$75$680$1,000$1,605$605
11Wyndham Rewards Earner® Premier Card$395$680$1,200$1,485$285
12Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant®$650$544$1,500$1,394-$106
13Marriott Bonvoy Bold®$0$763$600$1,363$763
14Marriott Bonvoy Bountiful®$250$763$850$1,363$513
15IHG One Rewards Traveler Credit Card$0$431$800$1,231$431
16Wyndham Rewards Earner® Business Card$149$378$1,000$1,229$229
17United℠ Business Card$150$368$1,000$1,218$218
18Aeroplan® Credit Card$95$508$750$1,163$413
19Best Western Rewards® Premium Mastercard$89$746$480$1,137$657
20Delta SkyMiles® Platinum Business$195$328$1,000$1,133$133
21Delta SkyMiles® Gold$150$382$900$1,132$232
22Choice Privileges® Mastercard®$0$527$600$1,127$527
23Choice Privileges® Select Mastercard®$95$618$600$1,123$523
24JetBlue Business Card$99$412$800$1,113$313
25Delta SkyMiles® Gold Business$150$340$900$1,090$190
26Atmos Rewards Visa Business$70$356$800$1,086$286
27British Airways Visa Signature® Card$95$328$850$1,083$233
28Aer Lingus Visa Signature® Card$95$328$850$1,083$233
29Iberia Visa Signature® Card$95$328$850$1,083$233
30CitiBusiness® / AAdvantage® Platinum Select®$99$361$800$1,062$262
31Citi® / AAdvantage® Platinum Select®$99$343$800$1,044$244
32Delta SkyMiles® Platinum$350$382$1,000$1,032$32
33World of Hyatt$95$340$750$995$245
34JetBlue Plus$99$382$700$983$283
35Atmos Rewards Summit$395$352$1,000$957-$43
36Atmos Rewards Ascent$95$326$700$931$231
37Frontier Airlines World Mastercard®$99$424$600$925$325
38Citi® / AAdvantage® Globe™ Mastercard®$350$365$900$915$15
39Southwest Rapid Rewards® Performance Business$299$404$800$905$105
40Air France KLM Visa Signature® Card$89$482$500$893$393
41Virgin Red Rewards World Elite Mastercard®$99$388$600$889$289
42JetBlue Premier$499$382$1,000$883-$117
43United Club℠ Business Card$695$446$1,100$851-$249
44Southwest Rapid Rewards® Premier Business$149$379$600$830$230
45Miles & More® World Elite Mastercard®$89$310$600$821$221
46Wyndham Rewards Earner® Card$0$515$300$815$515
47World of Hyatt Business Credit Card$199$404$600$805$205
48Breeze Easy™ Visa Signature® Card$89$382$500$793$293
49Southwest Rapid Rewards® Premier$149$382$550$783$233
50Southwest Rapid Rewards® Plus$99$373$500$774$274
51United℠ Explorer$150$322$600$772$172
52Best Western Rewards® Mastercard$0$583$180$763$583
53Allegiant Allways Rewards Visa®$59$358$450$749$299
54Avelo Airlines World Elite Mastercard®$99$583$250$734$484
55United℠ Gateway$0$320$400$720$320
56Southwest Rapid Rewards® Priority$229$343$600$714$114
57United℠ Quest$350$346$700$696-$4
58Avianca LifeMiles American Express® Elite Card$249$340$600$691$91
59Avianca LifeMiles American Express® Card$99$382$400$683$283
60LATAM Airlines World Elite Mastercard®$99$366$400$667$267
61Qatar Airways Privilege Club Signature Credit Card$99$322$400$623$223
62TAP Miles&Go American Express® Credit Card$79$299$400$620$220
63Emirates Skywards Rewards World Elite Mastercard®$99$310$400$611$211
64Cathay World Elite Mastercard®$99$322$380$603$223
65Sun Country Airlines® Visa Signature® Card$89$409$250$570$320
66United℠ Club$695$340$900$545-$355
67Emirates Skywards Premium World Elite Mastercard®$499$310$700$511-$189
68Citi® / AAdvantage® MileUp®$0$352$150$502$352
69JetBlue Card$0$382$100$482$382
70LATAM Airlines Mastercard®$0$329$150$479$329
71Delta SkyMiles® Blue$0$322$100$422$322
72Citi® / AAdvantage® Executive$595$292$700$397-$303
73Qatar Airways Privilege Club Infinite Credit Card$499$352$500$353-$147
74JAL USA CARD (Premium)$85$310$100$325$225
75Turkish Airlines Miles&Smiles Premier Visa Signature® Card$99$400$0$301$301
76Marriott Bonvoy Premier® Credit Card$85$340$0$255$255
77The Ritz-Carlton® Credit Card$450$544$0$94$94
78Delta SkyMiles® Reserve Business$550$328$0-$222-$222
79Delta SkyMiles® Reserve$650$292$0-$358-$358
Caveats. This is a model, not a guarantee. It values all points at 1 cent (generous for some hotel programs, conservative for premium-cabin airline redemptions), assumes you hit each welcome bonus, and does not count the dollar value of perks like lounge access, travel credits, or insurance, which can be substantial. It is meant to isolate one question honestly: what do these cards return in pure rewards on typical spending?

Data and calculations by Cardocrat. Card offers verified against issuer sources as of July 2026. Free to cite with a link to this page.

Bryce Casson

Bryce Casson, Founder of Cardocrat. About the author.