We Calculated the Real First-Year Return of 72 Credit Cards on Average U.S. Spending

Most "best credit card" lists are ranked by which card pays the publisher the most. We did the opposite. We took all 72 major U.S. credit cards in the Cardocrat database and ran every one through the same realistic spending profile, then ranked them by the dollars they would actually return, valuing every point at a flat 1 cent.

We split the results into two tables. The main ranking covers the 46 everyday cards, the cash-back and flexible-points cards you can use anywhere. The 26 co-branded airline and hotel cards are ranked in a separate table, because their welcome bonuses are paid in miles or hotel points that we value at a flat 1 cent. That makes their one-time first-year figure look huge, but it is locked to one airline or hotel brand and is not comparable to a flexible card you can redeem against any purchase.

The welcome bonus does most of the work in year one

The single biggest driver of first-year value is the sign-up bonus, not the everyday earn rate. That is why a card can top the list one year and fall back to the middle the next. Compare the two right-hand columns in the table below: the gap between a card's first-year and ongoing value is almost entirely its welcome bonus.

4 premium cards actually lose money on rewards alone

This is the finding that "best card" roundups bury. On rewards and the annual fee alone, 4 cards finish the year negative, led by American Express® Platinum, American Express® Business Platinum, Chase Sapphire Reserve®, Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business℠. These cards are not bad, but they only make sense if you actively use their credits and perks (lounge access, travel and dining credits, free hotel nights). If you would not use those perks, you are paying to earn fewer net rewards than a free card.

No-annual-fee cards punch far above their weight

The best $0-fee card returns $1,187 in year one with nothing to recoup, and several no-fee cards out-earn premium cards on ongoing value. For most people who are not chasing perks, a no-fee card is the rational long-term keeper.

Full results: all 46 everyday cards, ranked by first-year value

Run these numbers against your own spending in the Cardocrat calculator. Your personal ranking shifts based on where you actually spend.

Co-branded airline and hotel cards, ranked separately

These 26 cards are tied to a single airline or hotel program. Their welcome bonuses are large hauls of miles or points, which we value at a flat 1 cent each, so their first-year figures average $919, well above the everyday cards. Treat that with caution: the bonus is worth that much only if you can use it with that one brand, and the ongoing earn rate is what matters once the bonus is gone. We keep them in their own table so a one-time point bonus does not crowd a flexible cash-back card off the main list.